Rare September Tornado Hits Near Pittsburgh, Pa.

September 29, 2012; 9:06 AM

Video shot by Matt Whyel
Posted to Facebook by the National Weather Service in Pittsburgh

A tornado touched down in Eighty Four, Pa., on Thursday around 4 p.m. The tornado did minimal damage; however, there was no tornado warning out for the area. The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh gave a detailed explanation of why the storm that produced the tornado did not meet the criteria for a warning:

"A surface low pressure system was moving across the upper Ohio Valley towards the Pittsburgh area associated with showers. As the system moved over Allegheny County, however, it strengthened and spawned heavy rain with windy conditions. The system then moved east and weakened. The greatest instability for thunderstorms to develop was well to the south along the Mason-Dixon Line. Thunderstorms did indeed occur in parts of West Virginia and Maryland in the evening.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issues Tornado Watches and Severe Thunderstorm Watches. There were no watches issued for our forecast area. In fact, the Pittsburgh area was not even in a Slight Risk area for severe thunderstorms. The nearest Slight Risk area issued by SPC was to our southeast over parts of WV, MD, and VA.

So you're probably wondering what happened with all these reports of flooding, wind damage, and possibly a tornado and what defines a severe thunderstorm. By definition the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as producing at least 1 inch in diameter of hail, winds of at least 58 mph, or 1 or more tornado (the result of a tornado would be a Tornado Warning). The "huge swirl" on the radar some of you may have seen was the actual surface low pressure spinning counter-clockwise associated with vorticity maximum within the shortwave crossing the region.

Again, the feature was best seen as it was crossing Allegheny County when the system was its strongest and the radar had the best view. Some of the winds had mixed down with the heavy showers causing sporadic areas of damage. Notice how I mentioned heavy showers and not thunderstorms. The reason for that is that there was no lightning and no thunder with the system spinning through the Pittsburgh area! There was however, one (the only one) strike of lightning in Moon Township near our office but that was it. Two areas of heavy rain moved across the Pittsburgh metro area causing some street flooding mainly due to poor drainage areas. Along with the heavy showers, the wind in some areas around the West End region caused several trees to fall, maybe due to the fact that the ground was very saturated from the recent rain in the last week.

At this time, several Special Weather Statements had already been issued to inform about high wind gusts up to 50mph and heavy rainfall that could potentially cause minor flooding and ponding on roads. A Flash Flood warning had been issued for the Pittsburgh Metro area to account for rapidly rising water on roads due to poor drainage. Certainly, severe weather is not very much expected to occur over western PA in late September, especially when the environment is not [capable] of even producing a thunderstorm with almost no instability. The velocity signatures seen on the radar were adequate enough for statements to be issued especially if funnel clouds were reported.

What's the difference between a funnel cloud and a tornado? A funnel cloud is when a rotating column of air does not make it to the ground and a tornado is a rotating column of air that extends from the cloud to the ground. It can't be certain from the video above that the funnel cloud actually made it to the ground due to certain obstructions. The storm survey will give a better indication of what happened and whether the damage done was caused by a tornado or a microburst (rapidly sinking air producing wind damage that is similar to, but distinguishable from, tornadoes)."

Below are radar images of the Washington County, Pa., tornado. The storm was a small supercell with rotation as shown on radar. A supercell is a type of storm that has rotating winds. Tornadoes usually come from supercell storms.

The two images to the left show the wind fields. Wind fields show weather the winds are moving toward or away from the radar. The reddish dots show strong winds.

The top right image is the radar data. The bottom right is an image showing where the strongest wind rotation is in the storm.

Source: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/western-pennsylvania-tornado/80695

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Will Taxes on Forgiven Debt Doom Surging 'Short Sales ...

A Dec. 31, 2012 deadline looms for homeowners taking advantage of debt-forgiveness foreclosure alternatives, including the surging option of ?short sales? ?- when banks allow the sale of a property for less than the balance owed on its mortgages.

In three months, the George W. Bush tax cuts expire, but so does the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007.

The law generally allows taxpayers to exclude income from the discharge of debt on their principal residence. Debt reduced from mortgage restructuring qualifies for this relief. So does mortgage debt forgiven through foreclosure.

Otherwise, struggling Americans who have already lost their homes could be saddled with additional taxes on the debt forgiven. Prior to the law, most mortgage debt forgiveness above a home?s fair market value was usually treated as taxable income.

Without an extension of the Debt Relief Act, short sales could slow down to a trickle. So could mortgage modifications that involve principal reduction or other forms of debt relief.

The timing couldn?t be worse. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which own or guarantee 60 percent of U.S. mortgages, are about to initiate streamlined short sales beginning Nov. 1.

The new Fannie/Freddie program will help ?underwater? borrowers and others with certain hardships avoid foreclosure, according to the independent regulator over Fannie and Freddie, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).

For example, borrowers will now qualify for a short sale if they need to relocate more than 50 miles from their home for a job transfer or new employment opportunity.

Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007 is in effect until Dec. 31, 2012. Up to $2 million of forgiven debt is eligible for this exclusion ? $1 million if married filing separately

?The exclusion does not apply if the discharge is due to services performed for the lender or any other reason not directly related to a decline in the home?s value or the taxpayer?s financial condition,? the IRS states.

Nonetheless, homeowners who will have or have had mortgage principals reduced and remain in their homes, or those whose debt was erased above a short sale?s price, should consult a tax professional or research filing requirements with the IRS.

Source: http://ecreditdaily.com/2012/09/taxes-forgiven-debt-kill-surging-short-sales/

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Brattleboro Finance Committee Meeting and Agenda - iBrattleboro

The Brattleboro Finance Committee will hold a special meeting on Tuesday, October 2, 2012 at 4:00pm in the Hanna Cosman meeting room at the Municipal Center.

Brattleboro Town Finance Committee Agenda
October 2, 2012 4:00 PM Hanna Cosman Mtg Rm

1. Call to Order
2. Agenda Review
3. Approve minutes of September 25, 2012
4. Announcements
5. Discussion: Proposed Debt Management guideline

6. New Business
7. Adjourn

Jan Anderson
Executive Secretary
Brattleboro Town Manager's Office
(802) 251-8100

Source: http://www.ibrattleboro.com/article.php/20120930114328230

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Tree on Wires Causes Outages - WestportNow.com - Westport ...

Saturday, September 29, 2012

Tree on Wires Causes Outages

UPDATE A tree on wires on Meeker Road at Sturges Highway left more than 100 Westport customers in the dark for more than four hours today.

Connecticut Light & Power Company said 113 customers were affected by the outage which occurred at mid-morning.

Police asked drivers to avoid the area and said Meeker Road was closed at Sturges Highway.

It was reopened shortly before 3 p.m.

Page 1 of 1 pages

Note: WestportNow Publisher Gordon F. Joseloff is also First Selectman of Westport

Source: http://www.westportnow.com/index.php?/v2/40200/

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Secondhand Smoke Kills 42,000 Nonsmokers a Year in US

How many Americans die from smoking without even lighting up a cigarette? More than 42,000 people a year, including 900 infants, according to a new, thorough analysis of secondhand smoke deaths by researchers at the University of California, San Francisco.

Altogether, that's 600,000 years of potential life lost ? an average of 14.2 years for each nonsmoker who has died prematurely as a result of someone else's smoking ? amounting to $6.6 billion in lost productivity.

The early deaths disproportionately affect African-Americans, especially black infants. And the researchers said they are likely underestimating the true impact. Their results are detailed this month in the American Journal of Public Health.

Even so, according to a Gallup poll conducted July 9-12, many smokers and nonsmokers are unaware of secondhand smoke danger, with just 28 percent of smokers saying secondhand smoke is very harmful to adults, compared with 63 percent of nonsmokers. Nearly one in four smokers said secondhand smoke is not too harmful or not harmful at all.

Gets in your blood

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has estimated that secondhand smoke causes about 49,000 deaths annually. The data supporting this, however, rely primarily on self-reporting to gauge secondhand smoke exposure, which many researchers consider unreliable.

Furthermore, given the poor air quality in most large American cities, calculating the number of deaths among nonsmokers due to secondhand smoke ? as opposed to diesel fumes and coal burning, for example ? has been difficult for researchers.

The UCSF researchers took a fresh approach by basing their numbers on a chemical called cotinine in the blood, which is a byproduct of smoking proportional to the amount of exposure to tobacco smoke. Most of us have cotinine in our blood; but those who are exposed to lots of secondhand smoke at home or, for example, at a bar, will have higher levels. [Never Too Late: 5 Habits You Should Still Quit]

This is the first estimate of secondhand smoking deaths and economic impact based on serum cotinine, said the study's lead author, Wendy Max, professor of health economics at the UCSF School of Nursing.

An underestimate

The new study shows that the statistics on fatalities resulting from ischemic heart disease are 25 percent lower than previously reported (34,000 deaths compared with 46,000), but nearly twice as high for lung cancer deaths (7,333 deaths compared with 3,400).

Nevertheless, this is likely an underestimate, Max told LiveScience. She said the number of deaths her team calculated is a statistical estimate, not an identification of particular individuals.

"It is true that smoking is banned in many public places and workplaces," Max said. "However, our use of the biomarker indicates that people are still being exposed more than we realized. Much of this may be at home, but not all. Studies show that even small amounts of secondhand smoke exposure may have a negative impact on health, particularly for people who are vulnerable for various reasons."

The vulnerable include newborns, either exposed in the womb or after birth, and adults with existing heart and lung problems.

The largest toll is on African-Americans. Blacks accounted for 13 percent of all deaths, but up to 36 percent of infant deaths. Black adults had significantly greater exposure rates than did whites in all age groups.

"This burden results in communities of color suffering relatively greater losses," both in health and economic potential to their communities and the nation, the researchers wrote.

The UCSF researchers relied on date from several sources, including the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, the National Health Interview Survey, and the Multiple Cause of Death data file, which contains records of 2.4 million deaths.

Christopher Wanjek is the author of a new novel, "Hey, Einstein!", a comical nature-versus-nurture tale about raising clones of Albert Einstein in less-than-ideal settings. His column, Bad Medicine, appears regularly on LiveScience

Copyright 2012 LiveScience, a TechMediaNetwork company. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/secondhand-smoke-kills-42-000-nonsmokers-us-132258497.html

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Jury: Death for arsonist convicted of 5 murders

SAN BERNARDINO, Calif. (AP) ? A jury on Friday recommended death for an arsonist convicted of murdering five men who died of heart attacks during a wildfire that ripped through Southern California nearly a decade ago.

The murder charges against Rickie Lee Fowler, 31, signaled a tough standard for arson cases in a region plagued by wildfires that sometimes claim the lives of firefighters and civilians.

The Old Fire scorched 91,000 acres and destroyed 1,000 buildings while burning for nine days. The men died after their homes burned or as they tried to evacuate.

Superior Court Judge Michael A. Smith ordered Fowler to return to court Nov. 16 for sentencing. The judge can either accept the jury's recommendation or sentence Fowler to life in prison without possibility of parole.

Fowler, who wore a pinstriped shirt, spoke briefly with his attorney after the recommendation was read. He was handcuffed and led down a hall by bailiffs.

San Bernardino County District Attorney Michael A. Ramos welcomed the verdict after the fire devastated neighborhoods, destroying people's lives and cherished personal property such as photos, albums and letters that can never be replaced.

"Hopefully this does bring some justice to the victims," Ramos said.

Jurors declined to speak with reporters outside the courtroom.

Defense attorney Michael Belter said he spoke with members of the jury after the hearing and was told they had gone back and forth on whether to recommend death or a life sentence.

"We still take the position that if one is not involved with the intentional killing of somebody, the death penalty would not be warranted," Belter said, adding that he plans to file a motion for a new trial.

Fowler was convicted in August of arson and five counts of first-degree murder for setting the massive wind-blown blaze that ravaged the hills east of Los Angeles in 2003.

Laurie Levenson, a professor at Loyola Law School and former federal prosecutor, said that in charging Fowler with murder for setting the fire, prosecutors applied the same reasoning as they do when charging bank robbers for murder after tellers die of heart attacks. However, she acknowledged that people might not see a link between setting a wildfire and suffering a heart attack.

"Usually in arson, people die of smoke inhalation, or being ? God forbid ? burned to death. This is not the ordinary way people die in these situations," she said.

Levenson said the prosecution ran little risk in trying to get the death penalty for Fowler because doing so enabled them to cull a more conservative jury pool.

Robert Bulloch, supervising deputy district attorney, said he doesn't believe the manner of death made a difference in this case.

"Whether they were shot in a liquor store, in the course of a robbery or they were run over while somebody was trying to get away, the fact of the matter is that these lives were directly lost as a result of Rickie Fowler's actions," said Bulloch, who prosecuted the case.

Fowler became a suspect in the wildfire after witnesses reported seeing a passenger in a white van tossing burning objects into dry brush in the foothills above San Bernardino. Acting on a phone tip, investigators interviewed Fowler several months after the fire but didn't have enough evidence to file charges until six years later.

Fowler was serving time for burglary when he was charged with starting the blaze ? one of many fires that raged simultaneously throughout Southern California. While in prison awaiting trial, he was convicted of sodomizing an inmate and sentenced to three terms of 25 years to life.

Prosecutors argued at trial that Fowler lit the fire out of rage after he was thrown out of a house where his family was staying. They painted a picture of Fowler as a sadistic felon who raped, robbed and tortured people throughout his life.

Defense attorneys said Fowler never acknowledged starting the fire and suffered a horrific childhood with methamphetamine-addicted parents and a neighbor who molested him.

Prosecutors said Fowler gave authorities a note in 2008 acknowledging he was there when the fire began. The following year, he told reporters he had been badgered into making a confession.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/386c25518f464186bf7a2ac026580ce7/Article_2012-09-28-Deadly%20Arson%20Fire/id-029fa385c389483d8124857a124a47ee

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Stem Client Roundup for September 2012 ? Law Firm Web Strategy

LegalPubs.ca

A site tracking the latest in Canadian Legal Publications.

Lawblogs.ca

A directory of Canadian legal blogs, sorted by location, practice area, and more.

The Clawbies

Stem's annual contest celebrating the best in Canadian Legal Blogging.

Source: http://www.stemlegal.com/strategyblog/2012/stem-client-roundup-for-september-2012/

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Another Silly Baby Blog: Back that Thang Up

Back that Thang Up

Hello ladies!! (Where have you been?!) ?Sometimes you have to disconnect in the name of reconnecting. ?While it could totally apply to me and this blog it doesn't...well it kind of does. ?Last week I decided to disconnect from my heavy usage of Facebook, Twitter, and my usual gossip sites- even Pinterest! ?It was time for me to reconnect with myself; you know the self I was pre-baby: a wife. ?It is so easy as a first time mom to become completely absorbed in your new little bundle that you forget to tender to both relationships. ?Sometimes you aren't up for the schmoozing that comes with rekindling your former goddess. ?Hell all that extra baby weight, those stretch marks, that extraness?about your body does nothing for your desire. ?But its important to remember that you are a whole new level of bad ass and you should put your extra self even higher on that goddess pedestal. ?
So now that I've convinced you to get your butt on the pedestal and reconnect, just how do you do it? ?Welp, I'm not a relationship expert so my lil tips might not work for you or be enough...but you're still reading so why not share?! ?First, get your self confidence together. ?Sure you got that extraness?going on but why not work those hips your baby gave you? ?Second, get the right gear.? Before baby you probably wore cute little pieces to highlight your assets and hide the trouble zones so why not do it now? ?Babydolls hide those tummies! ?Third, realize your hubby, boyfriend, boo, whatever will be so shocked by your enthusiasm that all of your worst fears will be for nothing! ?I can't imagine a guy turning down a chance to reconnect over stretch marks...and if they do, get a better companion. ?
? Now reconnecting doesn't have to be all about adult time. ?Put baby to bed and spend as little as 5 minutes holding each other, sharing one of your favorite pre-baby memories. ?Do something unexpected. ?Does hubs always take the trash out before bed?...take it out yourself! ?Leave a little note in his pocket for him to discover at work. ?Clearly you want to make sure it won't embarrass the two of you if another person were to see it should you choose to be more vulgar with yours. ?Does it sound like you're doing a lot of work and romancing here? ?Perhaps...but if your husband is like mine and has trouble shaking the guts and glory?birth of baby, it may be just what he needs. ?Let him know that the goddess is back and better than ever!

Source: http://anothersillybabyblog.blogspot.com/2012/09/back-that-thang-up.html

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3 Simple List Building Tips that Work ? Indie Craft Marketing ...

Sep
28

Any successful business owner knows that building a relationship with customers and prospects is vital. If you are looking out to make it big with your own Internet marketing business then you need to realize the importance of building such strong relationships by building your own targeted email list. If you haven?t been working on creating an email list filled with targeted prospects, you could be missing out on plenty of unrealized profits. Email offers you the chance to stay on contact with your prospects and customers, offer them the things they want and create a relationship with them. This article will look at some list building tips you can put to good use right away to increase your subscriber numbers. Your goal with this page is to win your visitors over and get them to subscribe to your list and that?s about it. The grounds for squeeze pages working so well is due to their relevance, simple to grasp and clearly show visitors the good things that come from signing up. Co-registration is another way to boost your sign up rate and grow your list. It?s actually quite effortless; an ad about your mailing list pops up on various websites and individuals just have to check a small box to become signed up for your list. It?s a novel strategy for increasing the number of subscribers on your list, yet the only unhelpful thing is that your subscribers might not be all that targeted. It takes a bit of planning to get it right.

We have to consider http://www.nicecritic.com/gold-affiliate-asset/. Lastly, be sure to offer your prospects some good reasons to join your mailing list. You might be offering to mail out updates on new products or helpful tips, so let them know what they?ll receive. The clearer you can highlight this, the more likely they?ll be to take action. People tend to take action on a whim. By highlighting the advantages of joining your list, those prospects will give in to temptation and join on impulse. Don?t clutter your signup form with too much information, but just have the benefits listed out in bullet points.

You?re going to have to focus on list building to be successful; these tips will get you off to a great start. Now that you have a good idea about how to begin building your list you?ll have more time to become comfortable building a relationship with those who are on your list. After all, your whole business depends on the type of relationship you create with your list, because that?s what helps you get more business.

Posted in Internet Marketing
Posted by Indie

Source: http://www.indiecraftdocumentary.com/3-simple-list-building-tips-that-work/

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a Year in the Life of Abby: Home Movie | Toddler Times

She'll knock you out with the cute. Boom. Flat on your butt.

Okay, so I?m a tad bit late in getting a project finished. Shocking I know with the amount of crafting, cooking/baking, and DIY?ing that I do. Pinterest, for example, is a fantastical place to be inspired and get ideas for all of the aforementioned.

Except at the rate that I (and all others it would seem) am ?pinning,? the reality of making all of those Pins happen? Doing all those projects? Not happening. I would much rather waste my time in the dark recesses of video editing; cutting and snipping and gathering and knitting together a fabric of show-stopping magnificence.When I say ?show-stopping magnificence,? this is not to be attributed with my mad video editing skillz. Not in the least! I?m referring, rather, to the little?people?that I have born. The ones who my make my everyday a huge event. It?s in their company that I want to savour every moment in the present and capture enough memories to savour when I?m old and grey. To share with them and their children in the years to come. To share with their friends, g-rents, extended family all other adoring fans who aren?t lucky enough to savour the everyday.

It?s important to build up all of the gooey, golden moments and treasure them like the huge shining beams of awesome that they are. It?s what helps us (me anyways), get through the less than savoury moments of which there are a plenty.?I?ve posted the video on my personal blog today. This was a project that I had meant to publish in honour of Abby?s 1st birthday. So while I may be a couple of months late, who?s really counting??Surely, not she.

More Babbles From Selena?

**************************************************************

Selena is a crafty, culinary mom. Creative Director. Social Media & Branding Consultant. Regular writer on?Disney Baby. Part-time big-mouth & frequent foot-eater. Proud of her?Anishinaabe?roots.

Elsewhere on the internets?

Via my humble?beginnings, mastering in general mayhem:?le petit r?ve
Of guilty pleasures, geekery and badassery: on the?Twitters
Connect to my hand-made personna on:?Facebook
Join me in my?Pinterest?or?Instagram?addictions

Source: http://blogs.babble.com/toddler-times/2012/09/27/a-year-in-the-life-of-abby/

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XXX search engine helps parents block porn

8 hrs.

Leslie Meredith, Senior Writer

There's a new (Web) address for all things X-rated. ICM, the company behind Search.xxx, Thursday launched its porn-only search engine that corrals porn sites inside a single .xxx domain.

While some members of the porn industry weren't too happy with Internet authority Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers' (ICANN) decision to authorize the xxx master domain, it may help parents prevent curious kids from seeing adult material.

ICM has made its launch page as convenient as possible for the user ? with no ads, a big search box and three buttons to select a language, a sexual orientation and a light or dark screen (the latter is preferred by experts for?nighttime reading ). The only protection is an age gate that asks users to indicate whether they're 18 years of age or older ? standard protocol on the Internet ? and insufficient to prevent minors from accessing it.

Many porn site operators are using the new .xxx extension. Parents can block this top-level domain from browsers used on family computers and other devices.

Metacerf, the security software company that has partnered with ICM to identify adult pages, offers a free plug-in for Firefox and Chrome?browsers ?that block .xxx websites, as well as other pages found to have adult content. (Porn sites were allowed to keep their .com addresses, so porn can still be found outside the .xxx domain.) A version for Internet Explorer and Safari will be released soon. And, Metacerf also has a family-friendly browser in the works, called Olly, for iPad and iPhone devices.

It's worth mentioning that you can also block .xxx and any other sites you find objectionable from?Google search results. Open a Google search page, click the gear icon at the upper right of the page to select options and then select "search settings." Scroll down the page and click the link "block unwanted sites." Type search.xxx in the box and click the Block button. Competing search engine Bing does not allow users to block specific sites, but like Google, it offers filters designed to eliminate showing links to adult material in search results.

To set the Bing and Google Search filters to "strict," go into your search settings by clicking on the gear icon. Choose "search settings" to see your filter options and set to "strict." That's it for Bing, but Google also lets you lock in your choice. While it's not really a lock that keeps kids from changing the stricter filter, it does add a big graphic element that indicates safe settings are on and sites are blocked. Big bouncing balls at the top of every search page are easy to see even from across the room.

Copyright 2012 TechNewsDaily, a TechMediaNetwork company. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Source: http://www.nbcnews.com/technology/technolog/new-xxx-search-engine-helps-parents-block-porn-6151203

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Obama, Netanyahu united against Iran nuclear drive

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Friday expressed solidarity on the goal of preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, the White House said, amid signs of easing tensions over their differences on how to confront Tehran.

Obama, who opted not to meet Netanyahu on his U.S. visit, spoke by phone to the Israeli leader, who used his U.N. speech on Thursday to keep up pressure on Washington to set a "red line" for Tehran. But in a softening of his approach, Netanyahu also signaled that no Israeli attack on Iran was imminent before the November 6 U.S. presidential election.

"The two leaders underscored that they are in full agreement on the shared goal of preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon," the White House said in a statement. But it stopped short of saying Obama had given any ground on his resistance to issuing an ultimatum to Tehran as Netanyahu has demanded.

Mitt Romney, Obama's Republican presidential rival, was expected to speak by phone to Netanyahu later on Friday while the Israeli leader was in the New York.

(Reporting By Matt Spetalnick; Editing by Sandra Maler)

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/obama-netanyahu-united-against-iran-nuclear-drive-white-174401696.html

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Obama presents his closing case in 7 states (The Arizona Republic)

Share With Friends: | | Politics - Top Stories Stories, RSS and RSS Feed via Feedzilla.

Source: http://news.feedzilla.com/en_us/stories/politics/top-stories/251537929?client_source=feed&format=rss

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Lewandowsky to Remove All Blog Based References ? the Air Vent

Over the past few weeks I have had several communications with Dr. Lewandowsky regarding his wonderful contribution to science very appropriately titled:

MOTIVATED REJECTION OF SCIENCE
NASA faked the moon landing|Therefore (Climate) Science is a Hoax:
An Anatomy of the Motivated Rejection of Science

Think about that.?? Who could reject the truth of ?science???.? It must be one who has such powerful beliefs on something that scientific fact, real proof, even unequivocal evidence has no effect on their opinion.? How much more Orwellian a title could be written?? As we have learned at Climate Audit, from the content of the paper the irony is difficult to overstate.

As you unfortunate victims readers know, I have a naturally acerbic personality which is even more poorly contained in blogland. ? The very title of the Lewandowsky article attacks the open discussion on which science is necessarily based.? A more biased attack on reasoned skepticism is hard to fathom.

The Air Vent blog isn?t exactly a great life achievement in my point of view but it is one of the far too rare science-first blogs skeptical of <b>catastrophic</b> anthropogenic global warming.? I didn?t imagine that a conservative engineer who started a free blog under a pseudonym complaining about political and monetary pollution of climate science would extend to being banned by climate blogs, being outed by the British press, surprise phone calls on Sunday morning,? hacked email drops, being contacted by the anti-terror squads of the British government and then recently being libeled with accusations of being an anti-science denier and advocate of conspiratorial whatever in the Journal of Psychology..

You have to love liberalism in all of its wonderful forms.? Does anyone wonder now why I published under ?Jeff Id? ?

The article in the references is the lone Internet link of any kind in the references:http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2009/11/29/global-temperature-records-above-the-law/ (Accessed 6 May 2012).? Certainly the post is argumentative but it is about the collusion by Jones and UEA officials to ignore legal freedom of information requests. ? Unlike Lewandowsky, it seems obvious that nobody really knew what data was used in CRU ground temperatures at that time.? Now we know even Phil Jones was a bit confused on the matter. Fortunately, after climategate, Dr. Phil became a lot more open to releasing the data and I believe tAV was the first blog to reproduce his results after code became available.

The accusations by Dr. Lewandowsky were allowed by the editorial review of the Journal of Psychology yet claims that I?m a climate change denier and that I believe temperatures were illegitimately adjusted are clearly false.? I wrote first to Lewandowsky regarding the error and received an automated reply about his travel so I wrote to his coauthor.? After some time, I was told that Lewandowsky didn?t believe he was in error using this rather cute bit of sophistry:

So even after telling him of his error, Lewandowsky is still saying that I have accused someone of illegitimate temperature record adjustment for the explicit purpose of exaggerated warming but apparently I?m not a denier.? I have not made either claim of course, however, on a similar vein there are some UHI based embarrassments by the climate change extremist community that I could happily detail for him.? The funny bit is that Lewandowsky proposed to replace the Condon reference for climate change deniers with a ?google search? that would include my blog amongst others:

I told him that listing my blog in any manner as supportive of his claim was clearly false at this point and it would not be acceptable. ? I received no more replies from Lewandowsky after that point.

So I contacted the editor of the Journal of Psychology ?.

Eric Eich didn?t respond at all at first.?? So I threw a bit of a fit with him and got the reply that they were looking into the matter and ?promised? to get back to me when they had a decision.? I thanked him and provided these examples as to why the claims were false:

The links were sent with a few other details as well, so I waited another week without reply.?? I wrote again asking what decision was made and received this a couple of days ago from Eric Eich:

Eric refused to use my last name during any of our communications despite the journal?s reference being to ?Condon? and despite me signing all of my correspondence ?Condon?.? I even pointed out the discrepancy in name after his first reply to no avail. His repeated inability to use my name, made it quite obvious that that the Editor of the Journal Of Psychology is in no way emotionally detached from this issue.

Now some of the sophistry of the reply is due to the fact that they cannot admit libel even by accident but I found this resolution to be rather humorous. ?? Lewandowsky is claiming his false claims are not ?misleading? but Eric Eich believes that all references to blog post must be removed for some unexplained reason.

Below is a complete list of the references with ALL of the blog references bolded:

Abt, C. C. (1983, September). The anti-smoking industry (Philip Morris internal report).
Available from http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/tid/vob81f00 (Accessed 6
May 2012)

Allison, I., Bindo, N. L., Bindschadler, R. A., Cox, P. M., Noblet, N. de, England, M. H.,
et al. (2009). The Copenhagen diagnosis, 2009: Updating the world on the latest
climate science. (University of New South Wales)

Anderegg, W. R. L., Prall, J. W., Harold, J., & Schneider, S. H. (2010). Expert credibility
in climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, 107 ,
12107{12109.

Bale, J. M. (2007). Political paranoia v. political realism: on distinguishing between
bogus conspiracy theories and genuine conspiratorial politics. Patterns of Prejudice,
41 , 45{60.

Bogart, L. M., & Thorburn, S. (2005). Are HIV/AIDS conspiracy beliefs a barrier to HIV
prevention among African Americans? Journal of Acquired Immune Deciency
Syndromes, 38 , 213{218.

Boyko, M. T. (2007). Flogging a dead norm? Newspaper coverage of anthropogenic
climate change in the United States and United Kingdom from 2003 to 2006. Area,
39 , 470{481.

Brulle, R. J., Carmichael, J., & Jenkins, J. C. (2012). Shifting public opinion on climate
change: an empirical assessment of factors in
uencing concern over climate change
in the U.S., 2002{2010. Climatic Change.

Condon, J. (2009, November). Global temperature records above the law. Available from
http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2009/11/29/
global-temperature-records-above-the-law/ (Accessed 6 May 2012)
Motivated rejection of science 18

Diener, E., Emmons, R. A., Larsen, R. J., & Grin, S. (1985). The satisfaction with life
scale. Journal of Personality Assessment, 49 , 71{75.

Diethelm, P., & McKee, M. (2009). Denialism: what is it and how should scientists
respond? European Journal of Public Health, 19 , 2-4.

Ding, D., Maibach, E., Zhao, X., Roser-Renouf, C., & Leiserowitz, A. (2011). Support for
climate policy and societal action are linked to perceptions about scientic
agreement. Nature Climate Change, 1 , 462{466.

Doran, P. T., & Zimmerman, M. K. (2009). Examining the scientic consensus on climate
change. Eos, 90 (3), 21{22.

Douglas, K. M., & Sutton, R. M. (2008). The hidden impact of conspiracy theories:
Perceived and actual in
uence of theories surrounding the death of Princess Diana.
The Journal of Social Psychology, 148 , 210{221.

Douglas, K. M., & Sutton, R. M. (2011). Does it take one to know one? Endorsement of
conspiracy theories is in
uenced by personal willingness to conspire. British Journal
of Social Psychology, 50 , 544{552.

Dunlap, R. E., & McCright, A. M. (2008). A widening gap: Republican and Democratic
views on climate change. Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable
Development, 50 (5), 26{35.

Dunlap, R. E., & McCright, A. M. (2011). Organized climate change denial. In
J. S. Dryzek, R. B. Norgaard, & D. Schlosberg (Eds.), The Oxford handbook of
climate change and society (pp. 144{160). Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.

Fan, X. (2003). Two approaches for correcting correlation attenuation caused by
measurement error: Implications for research practice. Educational and
Psychological Measurement, 63 , 915{930.

Feygina, I., Jost, J. T., & Goldsmith, R. E. (2010). System justication, the denial of
global warming, and the possibility of ?system-sanctioned change?. Personality and
Motivated rejection of science 19
Social Psychology Bulletin, 36 , 326{338.

Freudenburg, W. R., & Muselli, V. (2010). Global warming estimates, media
expectations, and the asymmetry of scientic challenge. Global Environmental
Change, 20 , 483{491.

Goertzel, T. (1994). Belief in conspiracy theories. Political Psychology, 15 , 731{742.

Goertzel, T. (2010). Conspiracy theories in science. EMBO reports, 11 , 493{499.

Gosling, S. D., Vazire, S., Srivastava, S., & John, O. P. (2004). Should we trust web-based
studies? A comparative analysis of six preconceptions about internet questionnaires.
American Psychologist , 59 , 93{104.

Hamilton, L. C. (2011). Education, politics and opinions about climate change evidence
for interaction eects. Climatic Change, 104 , 231{242.

Hanson, F. (2009). Australia and the world: Public opinion and foreign policy (Tech.
Rep.). Sydney, NSW: Lowy Institute.

Heath, Y., & Giord, R. (2006). Free-market ideology and environmental degradation:
The case of belief in global climate change. Environment and Behavior, 38 , 48{71.

Inhofe, J. (2012). The greatest hoax: How the global warming conspiracy threatens your
future. Washington, DC: WND Books.

Jacques, P. J. (2012). A general theory of climate denial. Global Environmental Politics,
12 , 9{17.

Jacques, P. J., Dunlap, R. E., & Freeman, M. (2008). The organisation of denial:
Conservative think tanks and environmental scepticism. Environmental Politics, 17 ,
349{385.

Kahan, D. M. (2010). Fixing the communications failure. Nature, 463 , 296{297.

Kahan, D. M., Jenkins-Smith, H., & Braman, D. (2011). Cultural cognition of scientic
consensus. Journal of Risk Research, 14 , 147{174.
Motivated rejection of science 20

Kalichman, S. C., Eaton, L., & Cherry, C. (2010). \there is no proof that HIV causes
AIDS?: AIDS denialism beliefs among people living with HIV/AIDS. Journal of
Behavioral Medicine, 33 , 432{440.

Lahsen, M. (1999). The detection and attribution of conspiracies: the controversy over
Chapter 8. In G. Marcus (Ed.), Paranoia within reason: a casebook on conspiracy as
explanation (pp. 111{136). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Lewandowsky, S., Ecker, U. K. H., Farrell, S., & Brown, G. D. A. (in press). Models of
cognition and constraints from neuroscience: A case study involving consolidation.
Australian Journal of Psychology.

Lewandowsky, S., Gignac, G. E., & Vaughan, S. (2012). Climate science is not alone: The
pivotal role of perceived scientic consensus in acceptance of science. Manuscript
submitted for publication.

Lewandowsky, S., Stritzke, W., Oberauer, K., & Morales, M. (2009). Misinformation and
the War on Terror: When memory turns ction into fact. In W. G. K. Stritzke,
S. Lewandowsky, D. Denemark, J. Clare, & F. Morgan (Eds.), Terrorism and
torture: An interdisciplinary perspective (pp. 179{203:). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge
University Press.

Lewandowsky, S., Stritzke, W. G. K., Oberauer, K., & Morales, M. (2005). Memory for
fact, ction, and misinformation: The Iraq War 2003. Psychological Science, 16 ,
190{195.

McCright, A. M., & Dunlap, R. E. (2003). Defeating Kyoto: The conservative
movement?s impact on U.S. climate change policy. Social Problems, 50 , 348{373.
McCright, A. M., & Dunlap, R. E. (2010). Anti-re
exivity: The American conservative

movement?s success in undermining climate science and policy. Theory Culture &
Society, 27 , 100{133.

Motivated rejection of science 21
McCright, A. M., & Dunlap, R. E. (2011a). Cool dudes: The denial of climate change
among conservative white males in the United States. Global Environmental
Change, 21 , 1163{1172.

McCright, A. M., & Dunlap, R. E. (2011b). The politicization of climate change and
polarization in the American publics views of global warming, 2001{2010. The
Sociological Quarterly, 52 , 155{194.

McKee, M., & Diethelm, P. (2010). Christmas 2010: Reading between the lines how the
growth of denialism undermines public health. British Medical Journal, 341 ,
1309{1311.

Michaels, D., & Monforton, C. (2005). Manufacturing uncertainty: Contested science and
the protection of the public?s health and environment. American Journal of Public
Health, 95 , S39{S48.

Mooney, C. (2007). An inconvenient assessment. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 63 (6),
40{47.

Nattrass, N. (2010). Still crazy after all these years: The challenge of AIDS denialism for
science. AIDS and Behavior, 14 , 248{251.

Nattrass, N. (2011). Defending the boundaries of science: AIDS denialism, peer review
and the Medical Hypotheses saga. Sociology of Health & Illness, 33 , 507{521.

Nyhan, B. (2010). Why the \death panel? myth wouldn?t die: Misinformation in the
health care reform debate. The Forum, 8 (1).

Oreskes, N., & Conway, E. M. (2010). Merchants of doubt. London: Bloomsbury
Publishing.

Scruggs, L., & Benegal, S. (2012). Declining public concern about climate change: Can we
blame the great recession? Global Environmental Change, 22 , 505{515.

Somerville, R. C. J. (2011). How much should the public know about climate science?
Climatic Change, 104 , 509{514.
Motivated rejection of science 22

Stocking, S. H., & Holstein, L. W. (2009). Manufacturing doubt: journalists? roles and the
construction of ignorance in a scientic controversy. Public Understanding of
Science, 18 , 23{42.

Sunstein, C. R., & Vermeule, A. (2009). Conspiracy theories: Causes and cures. Journal
of Political Philosophy, 17 , 202{227.

Swami, V., Chamorro-Premuzic, T., & Furnham, A. (2009). Unanswered questions: A
preliminary investigation of personality and individual dierence predictors of 9/11
conspiracist beliefs. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 24 , 749{761.

Swami, V., Coles, R., Stieger, S., Pietschnig, A., J. Furnham, Rehim, S., & Voracek, M.
(2011). Conspiracist ideation in Britain and Austria: Evidence of a monological
belief system and associations between individual psychological dierences and
real-world and ctitious conspiracy theories. British Journal of Psychology, 102 ,
443{463.

At this point, one thing is clear.?? The content of this study in the Journal of Psychology told us more about the Psychology of the Journal than anything purported to be studied.?

Source: http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2012/09/27/lewandowsky-to-remove-all-blog-based-references/

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Tourists among 19 killed in fiery Nepal plane crash

AP

People gather around the burning wreckage at the crash site near Katmandu, Nepal, early Friday.

By NBC News wire reports

KATMANDU, Nepal -- A plane carrying trekkers to the Everest region crashed and caught fire just after takeoff Friday in Nepal's capital, killing 19 people.

The victims included British, Chinese and Nepali passengers, authorities said.

The pilot of the domestic Sita Air flight reported trouble two minutes after takeoff, and Katmandu airport official Ratish Chandra Suman said the pilot appeared to have been trying to turn back.?

The crash site is only 547 yards from the airport, and the wrecked plane was pointing toward the airport area.

Reuters said it was a twin-engine, propeller-driven Dornier aircraft.

Investigators were trying to determine the cause of the crash and identify the bodies. Suman said he could not confirm if the plane was already on fire before it crashed.

Villagers forced back by flames
Cellphone video shot by locals showed the front section of the plane was on fire when it first hit the ground and appeared the pilot had attempted to land the plane on open ground beside a river.

The fire quickly spread to the rear, but the tail was still in one piece at the scene near the Manohara River on the southwest edge of Katmandu.

Villagers were unable to approach the plane because of the fire and it took some time for firefighters to reach the area and bring the fire under control.

Nepal officials: 6 survive, 15 killed as plane hits mountain in Himalayas

Soldiers and police shifted through the crash wreckage looking for bodies and documents to help identify the victims.

Seven passengers were British and five were Chinese; the other four passengers and the three crew members were from Nepal, authorities said.

Large number of local people and security forces gathered at the crash site. The charred bodies were taken by vans to the hospital morgue.

Gateway to Everest
The weather in Katmandu and surrounding areas was clear on Friday morning, and it was one of the first flights to take off from Katmandu's Tribhuwan International Airport. Other flights reported no problems, and the airport operated normally.

The plane was heading for Lukla, the gateway to Mount Everest. Thousands of Westerners make treks in the region around the world's highest peak each year. Autumn is considered the best time to trek the foothills of the Himalayan peaks.

More international coverage from NBC News?

In May, 15 people were killed when their plane crashed into a hill in northwest Nepal.

Autumn is the peak tourism season in Nepal which has eight of the world's 14 highest mountains, including Mount Everest. At least 11 people were killed in an avalanche in northwest Nepal on Sunday.

The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.

Dec. 4: Nepal's top politicians hold their Cabinet meeting on Mount Everest to highlight the danger global warming poses on glaciers ahead of next week's climate change talks in Copenhagen. Msnbc.com's Dara Brown reports.

More world stories from NBC News:

Follow World News from NBCNews.com on Twitter and Facebook

Source: http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/28/14133811-tourists-headed-for-everest-region-among-19-killed-in-fiery-nepal-plane-crash?lite

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NYC&#39;s Bartender&#39;s Fight Against Breast Cancer - - Restaurants and ...

In honor of Breast Cancer Awareness Month, bartender Michelle Milton for Neely's Barbecue Parlor will be donating 100 percent of her tips for the month of October to Chemo Comfort, which provides cancer patients with kits that help with the side effects of chemotherapy.

And at the end of the month, Milton will shave her head as an act of solidarity to everyone with the disease.

Michelle is a former media account executive who made bartending her new career four years ago. She became a dedicated breast cancer awareness advocate after losing close friends, including the woman whom she considers her mentor, to the disease.

In the past three years, she has raised thousands of dollars for breast cancer foundations by dedicating all of her tips - the bulk of her salary for the month.

Contact me here or follow me @dearclarissa & on Facebook. To keep up with all of our food coverage go to Fork in The Road or follow us on Twitter @ForkintheRoadVV.

Source: http://blogs.villagevoice.com/forkintheroad/2012/09/nycs_bartenders_breast_cancer.php

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Netanyahu?s ?red line? mocked on Twitter

Netanyahu shows an illustration during his speech at the U.N. on Sept. 27, 2012. (Keith Bedford/Reuters)

During his speech before the United Nations General Assembly on Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that the completion of Iran's nuclear enrichment program threatens the stability of the Middle East, Europe and the United States?and urged world leaders to draw a "red line" to prevent Iran from continuing on.

In a highly unusual move, Netanyahu wielded a prop to illustrate his point: He literally drew a red line across a poster that showed a cartoon of a bomb.

"Iran is 70 percent of the way there and ... well into the second stage," Netanyahu said while displaying the chart. "By next summer, at current enrichment rates, they will have finished the medium enrichment and moved on to the final stage. From there it is only a few more weeks before they have enriched enough for a bomb.

"Each day, that point is getting closer," he warned.

As you might expect, a few Twitter users mocked the display.

"Okay, it's official," The Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg wrote. "Netanyahu has no idea what he's doing. He has just turned a serious issue into a joke."

Goldberg continued: "Netanyahu's bomb cartoon is the Middle East equivalent of Clint Eastwood's chair."

"Apparently Netanyahu took a chart-making course from Paul Ryan," the comedian Rob Delaney tweeted.

"I didn't realize nuclear bombs looked like the bombs from Super Mario," Buzzfeed's Andrew Kaczynski quipped.

"Netanyahu has reduced nuclear war diplomacy to cartoons and markers," Sam Stein tweeted.

Many Twitter users questioned the wisdom of bringing clip art to the U.N., while some referenced a Roadrunner comparison.

"Excuse me, Prime Minister Netanyahu?" Rex Huppke wrote. "Wile E. Coyote called. He wants his bomb back."

"From what I can tell," ? @AGFlores tweeted, "Iran is seeking 1950's cartoon bombs made by Acme."

"Internets: Quick!" Jodi Williams wrote on Twitter. "We need a photo mashup of the StringRay photobomb and #Netanyahu's bomb chart."

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/lookout/netanyahu-red-line-cartoon-twitter-202454562.html

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Time for a doggie door? - Home Renovation Guide

September 27th, 2012 ?|? Published in pets

by Zach Buckley

?

If you?re the kind of pet guardian who?s always looking for a way to make your furry companion?s life a little sweeter, installing a doggie door might be on your list of home improvement projects. Doggie doors allow your pets to go in and out of the house independently (yes, cats can use them, too), so pets don?t have to interrupt you when they want to go outside. It sounds like an ideal scenario for both pets and owners, but there are pros and cons to installing a permanent doggie door.

Resale value

Installing a pet door does require cutting a hole in an exterior wall or door. If you end up not liking the door, you?ll have a major wall repair on your hands or you?ll need a new door. And potential buyers?? especially if they don?t have pets???may see a doggie door as detracting from a home?s value. Remember: Most buyers will decide?within the first eight seconds whether they?re interested in your home. If you plan to move in the next few years, think carefully about whether you should install a doggie door.

Creating convenience

Having a pet door means you won?t have to worry about rushing home to let the dog out. Dogs can snooze on the couch all day while you?re gone and go outside when they need to. And dogs that prefer to be outside can come inside if the weather changes unexpectedly. Plus, you may be able to sleep better knowing your dog can zip out at night for a restroom break.
But, dog doors don?t discriminate ? other neighborhood cats and dogs can enter your home, and even in urban areas, wildlife like rats, squirrels or?raccoons can get into the house through a pet door. Wild animals can do considerable damage to your home, but the errant rodent isn?t the biggest security breach to worry about. Recently,?four burglars gained access to a home?by crawling through a doggie door in the middle of the day. Electronic pet doors may be more secure than standard models, but you can take other steps to thwart burglars, too. Install the smallest possible door, adding a deadbolt at the top of the door where the pet door is installed, so burglars can?t reach through a doggie door and unlock the door to your home.

When your pets are part of your family, you want to do everything you can to make their lives happier. A pet door gives your animal companions more freedom while you?re away, and that makes your life happier too. Not everything about a pet door is positive, but for many pet lovers, the pros outweigh the cons. If you feel the same, installing a doggie door is a great weekend project that could offer benefits for years to come.

?

About the Author

Zach Buckley is a freelance writer based in the Midwest.?He enjoys exploring developing trends in education, technology and culture.? When he isn?t reading or writing blogs, he enjoys sampling good music and good food. Follow him on Twitter! @Zach_buckley

Source: http://blog.homerenovationguide.com/2012/09/27/time-for-a-doggie-door-heres-what-you-should-consider/

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Why Mitt's Goose May Already Be Half-Cooked (talking-points-memo)

Share With Friends: | | Politics - Top Stories Stories, News Feeds and News via Feedzilla.

Source: http://news.feedzilla.com/en_us/stories/politics/top-stories/251162793?client_source=feed&format=rss

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JWoww Admits Snooki Wanted Her To Be Engaged 'More Than Me'

Jenni talks to In Touch about why her bestie was the first to hear the news and her plans for an 'insane' Vegas wedding.
By Christina Garibaldi

JWoww and Roger Mathews in In Touch magazine
Photo: In Touch

Source: http://www.mtv.com/news/articles/1694443/jwoww-engaged-snooki-in-touch-magazine.jhtml

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There Will Be No Bacon Shortage

Don't panic! There will be bacon!

Photo by iStockphoto.

It all began, strangely enough, with a press release from an obscure foreign trade association. The National Pig Association of the United Kingdom, you see, wants British customers to feel OK about the idea of paying a higher retail price for pork products. They?d particularly like it if British customers went out of their way to buy locally produced pork. And why wouldn?t they?

?Vendors want you to buy more of their product at higher prices? is more or less the ultimate dog bites man (or, as the case may be, pork chop) story. But the press release?s provocative lede??A world shortage of pork and bacon next year is now unavoidable??captured the imagination of the Internet. Not right away, mind you. The release is dated Sept. 20, but the looming bacon shortage didn?t start making global headlines until Tuesday, Sept. 25.

Given the rise of bacon worship in recent years, perhaps it?s no surprise that people are upset at the thought of a bacon shortage. But is the shortage real? And does it even have anything to do with bacon in particular? Are we headed for a dystopian future of food lines and bacon rationing?

Not really. But you probably will have to pay more.

For starters, all bacon isn?t equal. The thing British people call ?bacon? isn?t the same as what Americans call ?bacon.? Their bacon is from the back cut of the pig and corresponds to what we call ?Canadian bacon.? Our beloved bacon, made from pork belly, is known in the United Kingdom as ?streaky bacon.? In Canada, interestingly, ?bacon? means the exact same thing as in the United States, and they use the term ?back bacon? to refer to what we call ?Canadian bacon? and English people just call ?bacon.? Which is simply a long-winded way of saying that the pork supply issue has nothing in particular to do with bacon.

The issue is corn. Drought this year has destroyed a lot of the world?s corn crop. Over the summer when all the dead corn was in the news, the devastation was portrayed in the press primarily as a sob story about farmers. But as Slate warned you at the time, the economic consequences extend far beyond corn growers and their immediate community.

That?s because corn, for better or for worse, is one of the key commodity inputs of the modern economy. The corn you eat on the cob or in the occasional tortilla or slice of corn bread is just the tip of the corn iceberg. Corn is (unwisely) used to fuel vehicles, and it?s an element in a large share of the food we eat in the form of corn syrup and corn-based oils. What?s more, the meat that we eat is substantially made of corn?a key ingredient in the recipe for modern industrial-scale animal feed. So when drought hits and corn dies, it gets more expensive to feed animals.

This affects the price of meat in different ways, depending on timing. The feedlot operators who supply the vast majority of American beef buy year-old cattle and then fatten them for the slaughter. As fattening gets more expensive, the price they?re willing to pay for the yearlings declines, so the price of cattle in the futures market goes down, reducing breeders? profits. In the short-term, drought and expensive feed lead to pre-emptive slaughter and an abundance of cheap meat. In the medium-term, however, this process leaves you with fewer animals to bring to the table.

Hence, the ?bacon shortage??actually a global increase in meat prices as a slightly delayed downstream consequence of the increase in corn prices.

Such an increase will, of course, be unpleasant for households used to buying as much cheap bacon as their hearts desire, but there shouldn?t be any actual shortages precisely because prices will rise. Shortages arise when price controls lead to a situation in which consumers want to buy more of something than actually exists, which can lead to government rationing. In our economy there will still be plenty of bacon on the shelves, just priced high enough to deter some people from eating as much of it as usual.

And we should keep these price hikes in context. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, bacon reached an average price per pound of $4.61 in August, which was a huge leap from earlier in the summer but actually lower than the price 12 months ago. And here in the United States at least, bacon happens to be more expensive than ham, pork chops, or the USDA?s ?all other pork, excluding canned and sliced? catch-all category. It?s more expensive than chicken, and it?s more expensive than ground beef. So American consumers will be able to adjust to higher prices by shifting to burgers, poultry, and other kinds of pork products?possibly even including the stuff the Brits call ?bacon??rather than breaking into mass panic and bacon riots.

The important thing is to keep the situation in perspective. Bad weather happens. Back in the spring of 2008 the world was also panicking about rising pork prices (though at that time the popular media narrative was that meat prices would lead to a surge in Spam sales rather than a bacon shortage). In part as a result of worrying too much about something totally beyond their control?the weather?central banks all around the world took their eyes off the growing collapse in global demand that summer with disastrous consequences we?re still seeing today. Let?s not allow inflated fears of a bacon shortage to distract us from more important issues. In the short term, there?s really nothing to be done but learn to cook more chicken.

Source: http://feeds.slate.com/click.phdo?i=35999892f1c8753016b2b5f03d95ce32

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